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Neil Dewart

A Regression-Based Interrogation of Australia's Bowlers

Here we present an in-depth discussion of Australia's bowling, using the remainder of the outputs produced from the same model we used to analyse the batting. The data spans all Australia test matches from July 2016 up until the 2020/21 series with India. The model we use, described in more detail here, uses regression modelling to provide ratings which take account for the quality of the opponent. In practice this means that the wicket of a high quality batsman, such as Kane Williamson, Virat Kohli or Joe Root. is worth more in our model than the wicket of a tailender.


Our model has an adjustable weight that allows us to place more emphasis on either taking wickets or preventing runs - we have chosen to order the players using a balanced weight that places equal emphasis between the two. In the 'Rating' column, we have included a numerical value to represent the 'ability' of each bowler, as computed by our model. The figure itself is arbitrary, but does help to give an idea of the relative strengths for when we compared the bowlers. In the final column we have included the rankings for when we weight towards run wicket-taking. This adds some important context around some bowlers who are valued for their ability to find a quick wicket - even if it does cost them a few runs.


For this analysis we have imposed a minimum qualification criteria of having bowled at least 100 overs for Australia across our chosen timeframe. The results are as follows:


Unlike with the batting analysis, there are not too many surprises here, which does at least make our run through the list a little more straightforward.


At the top we have the sensational Pat Cummins, who is also currently ranked as the best test bowler in the world by the ICC. Following behind him are Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc, two more superb fast bowlers.


Whilst there isn't anything at all surprising in what we see here - we all know that they are fantastic individually - it's worth reflecting on how well balanced these three are as a unit. Alongside Pat Cummins' all round brilliance, you have Josh Hazlewood's superb control, and Mitchell Starc's constant wicket-taking threat - which is demonstrated in the final column where the latter pair switch places when we weight towards wicket-taking. All together this makes for a potent Australian pace attack, as they will likely have the perfect fast bowler for all scenarios.


Behind that trio is a pair of spin bowlers - the now retired Steve O'Keefe and the experienced Nathan Lyon. Given his strong bowling average, as well as the fact he took a fair chunk of his wickets against a strong India side, O'Keefe can perhaps feel a little unlucky that he didn't get more of a chance in the test side.


In sixth spot is James Pattinson, who has impressed when he has featured, but injuries have meant his test career has been something of a stop-start affair. Just behind him is Jackson Bird, who may not have an impressive average, but the fact he jumps up a spot when we weight towards wicket-taking indicate that may be a useful strike bowler should, for example, Starc be unavailable.


The now-retired Siddle sits in eighth spot, followed by two part-timers in Mitch Marsh and Marnus Labuschagne. And finally, bringing up the rear is Jon Holland, who you suspect - with just 9 wickets in 4 tests at 64 apiece - many fans would rather forget.


Thanks for reading! This article is part of a series in which we apply our player ratings system to each major test playing nation in turn in order to gain more of an understanding of their batting and bowling options respectively - please check out the other articles if you haven't already:


England - Batting | Bowling

India - Batting | Bowling

New Zealand - Batting | Bowling

Australia - Batting | Bowling


If you liked this please check out some of the other articles on the site, follow the Twitter, and keep an eye out for more upcoming posts!


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