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Neil Dewart

A Regression-Based Interrogation of New Zealand's Bowlers

Updated: Aug 19, 2021

Here we present an in-depth discussion of New Zealand's bowling, using the remainder of the outputs produced from the same model we used to analyse the batting. The data spans all New Zealand test matches from July 2016 up until the recently contested World Test Championship final with India. The model we use, described in more detail here, uses regression modelling to provide ratings which take account for the quality of the opponent. In practice this means that the wicket of a high quality batsman, such as Steve Smith, Virat Kohli or Joe Root. is worth more in our model than the wicket of a tailender.


Our model has an adjustable weight that allows us to place more emphasis on either taking wickets or preventing runs - we have chosen to order the players using a balanced weight that places equal emphasis between the two. In the 'Rating' column, we have included a numerical value to represent the 'ability' of each bowler, as computed by our model. The figure itself is arbitrary, but does help to give an idea of the relative strengths for when we compared the bowlers. In the final column we have included the rankings for when we weight towards run wicket-taking. This adds some important context around some bowlers who are valued for their ability to find a quick wicket - even if it does cost them a few runs.


For this analysis we have imposed a minimum qualification criteria of having bowled at least 100 overs for New Zealand across our chosen timeframe. The results are as follows:


The top half of this list makes for very impressive reading indeed, with four excellent pace bowlers occupying the top four spots. There is little surprise in the order either, with the players coming out in line with their respective bowling averages.


Top of the pile we have Kyle Jamieson, who has made a blistering start to his test career. He does have the slight benefit of having bowled to, on average, weaker batting than the names below him in the list, but 46 wickets in his first 8 test matches - at just 14 apiece - is an excellent return regardless. Whilst it probably isn't feasible for him to maintain this level of performance for the remainder of his career, it's about as impressive a start as you could get.


Next we have the three most experienced names on the list, and arguably the most important players (alongside Kane Williamson) in New Zealand's rise to the top. Firstly there is Neil Wagner who, much like James Anderson, deserves plaudits for the way he continues to deliver at the highest level well into his thirties. He has a better bowling average than either Southee or Boult in the qualifying period, all the more impressive given that the average Wagner delivery in this period has been to a batsman averaging 39, higher than both Southee (38) and Boult (37).


Whilst we're on Southee and Boult, it's worth just quickly reflecting on how impressive these guys' careers have been. Both aged 32, both on around 300 test wickets, and both have continued to improve throughout their time in the side. Southee, in particular, has taken his bowling to another level in recent years, averaging under 24 compared to his career average of 28.


New Zealand fans must be hoping that this pair can follow in Wagner's footsteps and continue to deliver for a good few years yet. As we can see when we go down the rest of the list, New Zealand aren't exactly blessed with much depth in the bowling department and, with three of their frontline bowlers into their 30s now, this may become an issue sooner, rather than later. The emergence of Jamieson, however, should give hope that there is more talent out there waiting for their opportunity.


It's worth pointing out that depth is always going to be a problem for a country the size of New Zealand who, alongside Ireland, have the smallest population of any test playing nation. In fact, it highlights what a fantastic achievement it is for the side to reach the top of the ICC rankings, even more so when you consider that cricket isn't even the country's primary sport - that is, of course, rugby union.


Next in the list we have Ajaz Patel, who has put in some solid performances in the nine tests he has played to date. It's worth doing a quick compare and contrast here with the other spinners we see on the list - Jeetan Patel, Ish Sodhi, William Somerville and Mitch Santner.


Whilst Ajaz Patel looks to be the standout option here, it's interesting that Ish Sodhi actually jumps ahead of him if we weight towards wicket-taking, indicating that perhaps Sodhi might be a better option when quick wickets are needed, even if they might cost a few more runs. Jeetan Patel is now retired so it's not worth looking into his credentials in too much detail, but it might be a surprise to see William Somerville rank so far down the list given his respectable average of 32.


Somerville has, however, played most of his test career against relatively weaker sides in Pakistan and Sri Lanka and in his only test against truly high class opposition (vs Australia in 2020) he returned miserable figures of 1-135.


Bottom of the list here is Santner, which is unsurprising given his woeful average of 48. He does offer something with the bat, however, which is also the case for Sodhi, and you wonder whether this gives them an edge when it comes to selection. It makes sense for New Zealand to trust their four excellent seam bowlers more often than not, and so Ajaz Patel might struggle to nail down a regular spot despite looking, at least for now, like being the best spinner available.


And finally, to round up our analysis, we have Colin de Grandhomme and Matt Henry. De Grandhomme's medium pace offers excellent control - with an economy of just 2.4 - which, along with his aggressive lower batting, makes him a very useful player to have in the side. Matt Henry sits down in tenth in our list, and has generally struggled to make that fourth bowling spot his own. He remains a solid backup option to the likes of Wagner, Southee and Boult, but it does look from this analysis that he represents quite a drop in quality.


Thanks for reading! This article is part of a series in which we apply our player ratings system to each major test playing nation in turn in order to gain more of an understanding of their batting and bowling options respectively - please check out the other articles if you haven't already:


England - Batting | Bowling

India - Batting | Bowling

New Zealand - Batting | Bowling

Australia - Batting | Bowling


If you liked this please check out some of the other articles on the site, follow the Twitter, and keep an eye out for more upcoming posts!


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